Syria is getting ready to civil conflict as rebels raced to fill an influence vacuum left by ousted despot Bashar al-Assad.
His brutal 24-year reign of terror was ended by an Islamist anti-government offensive forcing him and his household to flee.
The lightning-fast coup toppled his army regime in hours, however what comes subsequent has the world nervously watching as gamers within the powder-keg Center East jostle for place.
1000’s poured onto the streets after the military withdrew, dancing and chanting: “Assad is gone, Homs is free”.
Colonel Richard Kemp, the embellished former British Military commander, stated: “Nobody has any actual concept how this example will develop and will see Syria changing into an Afghanistan-style base for international jihad, threatening us all. Rebels may have entry to large weapons stockpiles, together with chemical weapons, tanks, and planes.
The whereabouts of Assad, 59, who educated as a surgeon at Western Eye Hospital in London within the early nineties, and his spouse Asma and two kids stay unknown.
Amid the chaos, the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has emerged as a successor to the regime.
Its chief, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, said on Syrian state TV that there’s “no room” for turning again and that “the longer term is ours”.
It was arrange in 2011 as a direct affiliate of al-Qaeda below the identify of Jabhat al-Nusra and stays a proscribed terrorist group by the UN and the US.
The extraordinary occasions have been described as a brand new delivery for “nice Syria”, transferring from a “battle to overthrow the Assad regime to the battle to construct a Syria collectively that befits the sacrifices of its individuals”.
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer welcomed the autumn of Bashar al-Assad’s “barbaric regime” however urged for “peace and stability” within the nation.
He stated: “The developments in Syria are unprecedented, and we’re chatting with our regional companions and monitoring the state of affairs carefully.
“The Syrian individuals have suffered below Assad’s barbaric regime for too lengthy, and we welcome his departure.”
The toppling of Assad is a big embarrassment to Russia, a key ally which offered the army firepower to assist him stay in energy.
Russia confirmed the ousted Kremlin-backed dictator had left the nation following negotiations with “different members within the armed battle”.
Moscow stated it was not concerned within the negotiations, and its army bases in Syria remained on excessive alert however weren’t below menace. Rumours that Assad had fled to Moscow have been unconfirmed.
The Assad household had dominated Syria for 53 years, working the nation as a private fiefdom, with Assad seizing energy in 2000 after the demise of his father, who had dominated for nearly three a long time.
What made the previous 48 hours outstanding was the benefit at which his iron rule was overthrown.
Simply 13 years in the past, with weapons and {hardware} provided by Russia, Assad was in a position to crush a peaceable, pro-democracy rebellion which spiralled into civil conflict. Greater than 500,000 individuals have been killed and 12 million displaced.
Till not too long ago, Assad’s army, together with Russian air help, battled Hayat Tahrir al-Sham [HTS], a coalition of Islamist militant teams in northwest Syria. In the meantime, the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Defence Forces, which managed most of northeastern Syria, usually clashed with Arab tribes that accused the group of discrimination.
Turkey and its proxies additionally management areas alongside the northern border, whereas factionalised combating allowed area for the self-proclaimed Islamic State to launch assaults.
America has a minimum of 900 army personnel in Syria on counter-terrorism operations, whereas Israel has usually focused Iranian and Syrian army positions in Syria. Within the wake of final yr’s October 7 bloodbath, it hit Damascus and Aleppo airports.
Final week, HTS efficiently led a significant offensive within the northwest, which was aided by insurgent factions.
They seized Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest metropolis, earlier than sweeping south to seize the capital, Damascus, because the Syrian army folded.
The tip of President Assad’s iron rule has failed to finish bitter divisions inside Syria however marks a seismic shift within the area.
Syria is a key strategic location within the Center East, and there at the moment are heightened fears as to what follows, with specialists pointing to the aftermath of Iraq following the seize of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and Libya after the autumn of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, which each sparked years of bloodshed and civil conflict.
Former Tory MP, Defence Choose Committee chairman and Royal Inexperienced Jackets soldier Tobias Ellwood stated: “What Syria wants is a short-term technocratic authorities to stabilise the state of affairs and forestall full-scale civil conflict, adopted by a federated mannequin that displays the nation’s numerous patchwork of sectarian and ethnic areas. Get this proper and Syria might lastly transfer towards a extra secure future.
“Get it mistaken, and the nation dangers imploding, paving the best way for the elevated motion of medication, refugees, fashionable slaves, and weapons throughout the area.
“The implications of failure can be felt far past Syria’s borders, with one other wave of refugees fleeing towards Europe, a breeding floor for Islamic terrorism and an ever-turbulent Center East spilling over into international instability. As soon as once more, Syria requires worldwide assist. The query is: will the world blink once more?”
Alp Mehmet, Chairman of Migrationwatch UK, stated: “We will anticipate tens, if not lots of, of hundreds of these displaced, or who flee from the brand new regime, to make their technique to the EU and the UK – each legally and illegally. Many will wish to be part of the 20,000 who got here in 2015/16 as a part of the Syrian resettlement scheme.”
Pressure in Syria has been effervescent for greater than a decade.
What began as comparatively small-scale protests in opposition to Assad’s regime in 2011 grew right into a full-scale conflict between the Syrian authorities, backed by Russia and Iran, and anti-government insurgent teams backed by America and allies together with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates. Driving the battle have been coalition efforts to defeat the self-proclaimed Islamic State, violence between the Syrian authorities and opposition forces, and army operations in opposition to Syrian Kurds by Turkish forces.
Chatting with the Categorical concerning the wider implications of the toppling of Assad, Col Kemp stated: “It is a main blow for Iran. Syria was their shopper and a key ingredient of the ring of fireside technique in opposition to Israel. Iran will now be working to attempt to domesticate the rebels for their very own functions.”
“The opposite direct blow for Iran is that it cuts off what’s left of Hezbollah which beforehand had provide routes from Iran by way of Syria. Hezbollah is now remoted.
“Jordan might be below direct menace from the Islamist regime in Syria.
“Russia might be weakened and humiliated. They’ve been unable to avoid wasting the Assad regime. Their presence and affect in Syria was a significant ingredient of Russian status. It isn’t clear what they’ll now do.
“The most important winner is Turkey, which can now have the ability to deal extra successfully with the Kurds in Syria, which is a significant curiosity for them within the Center East. Given their relationship with HTS and different insurgent teams, they’ll now acquire significantly elevated affect within the Center East.”
Arwa Damon, President and founding father of the Worldwide Community for Help, Reduction, and Help, stated: “There isn’t a doubt in anybody’s thoughts that the period of al-Assad is completed.
“Even when individuals left Syria and have been ostensibly in a protected nation, they have been nonetheless afraid in lots of instances to really publicly converse out concerning the al-Assad regime.
“The worry of the regime, the worry of detention, the worry of what occurred inside this darkened ominous jail system, the worry of simply disappearing was so actual that it permeated each single particular person’s fibre of being.”
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Giles Sheldrick , 2024-12-08 17:09:00